Last season at the trade deadline the Cavaliers had a big decision to make. They were on their way to the best record in the NBA but had the opportunity – by most reports - to acquire Shaquille O’Neal for the expiring contract of Wally Szczerbiak. The deal never happened and the Cavs were beaten in the Eastern Conference Finals by the Orlando Magic as Dwight Howard dominated the Cleveland front line, something he never could have done if O’Neal were patrolling the middle for the Cavs.

This year the Cavs are again heading toward the February 18 trade deadline with the best record in the league, this time with O’Neal, whom they acquired this past summer, but with an even bigger decision to make – one on which the future of the franchise could depend. Since LeBron James can leave the Cavaliers after this season, every effort must be made to ensure that his departure doesn’t happen. That’s why it’s imperative that general manager Danny Ferry acts boldly to acquire another player to improve Cleveland’s chances of winning the title both this year and in the immediate future.

    If the Cavs do not acquire a quality player via trade this month, their chances of getting one after the season or in the next year or so are practically nil, because of the limitations put on them by the NBA’s salary cap. Simply put, if the Cavs stand pat now, they will be locked in next year for contracts totaling approximately $51 million, while the league’s salary cap is projected to be about $54 million. That means they would only have about $3 million to sign new players. (Teams cannot add free agents or any new players that would push their payrolls past $54 million. However they can re-sign their own players and drive their team’s payroll far above the limit as long as they are willing to pay a luxury tax. Unlike most teams, the Cavs, because of the deep pockets of owner Dan Gilbert and the desperate need to keep James in Cleveland, are willing to pay the luxury tax.)

    The way NBA trades are set up, the salaries of the players involved must come close to matching. Thus, if a team trades a $10 million player, they must take back a player or players whose salary come within about 15% (below or above) of $10 million. But that is for the current season only. So a team can take on a player who may have three years left on a $10 million per year contract in exchange for a player whose $10 million contract expires at the end of this season.

Thus the newly acquired player’s extra years at $10 million allow the team to go over the salary cap and pay only the luxury tax. Teams that are struggling financially make these kind of deals in order to save money on long-term contracts.The Cavaliers best “trading chip” is the $11 million expiring contract of backup center Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Based on that reality, it’s almost mandatory that Ilgauskas be included in any deal to acquire a quality player —one who is only available because he has a long-term, expensive contract that his team wants to get rid of

    But because the Cavs are playing so well, making a move is very risky.  If they make a trade, break up team chemistry and don’t win the title, will LeBron decide to leave? If they don’t make a trade and don’t win the title because of a talent shortage, will he decide to leave? This is the “life and death” dilemma facing the Cavs front office as it approaches the most critical decision in the franchise’s history.

    Of course, winning a title would solve everything. But despite their current success, the Cavs have  some holes (the inexperience of starting power forward JJ Hickson, and the psychological state of combo guard Delonte West) that could end up, like last year, derailing them in the playoffs. Add to that the sobering fact that – because of salary cap restraints ‑ the team has almost no possibility of acquiring a quality player this off-season or next. That’s why if a deal could be made for veteran all-star forward Antawn Jamison or rising-star shooting guard Andre Iguadala — both of whom would improve the team’s chances for a title this year and for the next couple years — Danny Ferry has to pull the trigger. Not doing so could be disastrous.